The course addresses a central issue in Environmental Science: the ongoing planetary transition from modernity to post-modernity, or, more specifically, from an industrial society to the post-industrial or digital era. This multidimensional transformation is reshaping the relationship between humanity and the natural environment—between culture and nature—across domains such as climate change, land use, and the physico-chemical quality of ecosystems. These changes are further compounded by the erosion of biodiversity and the disruption of ecosystem processes and services.

Given the inherent uncertainty of this transitional period, there is a pressing need for new methods and methodologies capable of addressing the emerging challenges in predicting changes within the Earth System. At the heart of this scientific transformation lies the crucial distinction between forecasting (which implies high certainty) and constructing scenarios for the evolution of planetary and human processes (which are based on presumed perspectives over time). The longstanding dichotomy between deductive logic and inductive reasoning has thus re-emerged as a dominant concern in contemporary scientific methodology.

This course aims to demystify the complexities of modern environmental epistemology by distilling the analysis of scenario construction—regarding the quantitative evolution of climate change and biodiversity conservation—down to the fundamental models and principles of ecology and environmental science.

Upon completion of the course, participants will be able to:

• Understand the various methodological approaches in contemporary Environmental Science.
• Apply mathematical and physico-chemical principles to construct scenarios for alternative environmental policy options at global, regional, and local scales.
• Evaluate existing scenarios (e.g., those developed by the IPCC and IPBES) in terms of their performance, effectiveness, and practical applicability for institutions and state policies.
• Develop advanced skills in constructing and calculating scenario outcomes related to climate change and biodiversity loss.

Graduates of the course will be equipped to assess, recommend, and implement measures, regulations, and policies within public administration, local government, international organizations, NGOs, or the private sector. Their expertise will contribute to the development, evaluation, and implementation of sustainable environmental regulations addressing climate and biodiversity challenges over the long term.