Dellios T.*, Kontos T., Theodorou K. (2026) Spatial modelling of wild boar habitat suitability and risk of disease spillover to pigs in Northern Greece. European Journal of Wildlife Research 72:19

*Mr Theodoros Dellios is a student of our M.Sc. Programme in “Global Environmental Change, Management & Technology, Direction: Environmental Policy and Biodiversity Conservation 

ABSTRACT

Wild boar (Sus scrofa) populations have expanded significantly across Europe since the mid-20th century, posing threats to biodiversity and agriculture through crop damage and disease transmission to livestock. Effective management requires understanding their distribution, density, and habitat preferences. This study predicted wild boar habitat suitability in Northern Greece (Macedonia and Thrace) using the Maxent species distribution modelling algorithm. Presence data from hunting sites were combined with environmental variables, including bioclimatic factors, land cover, and topography. The model performed well, with an AUC of 0.86 and a TSS of 0.52. The five most important predictors were land cover, mean temperature of the coldest month, precipitation seasonality, precipitation of the warmest quarter, and elevation. Highly suitable habitats included areas near water sources (e.g., rivers, marshes), diverse forests, transitional woodland-shrub zones, and agricultural regions with natural vegetation. To assess potential disease transmission risk, we used the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic to identify spatial clusters of domestic pig farms. We found areas where high wild boar habitat suitability overlapped with dense pig farm clusters, indicating zones of increased risk for African swine fever (ASF) transmission. ASF outbreak patterns supported the relevance of these risk zones but also highlighted the importance of non-spatial, human-mediated transmission pathways. This study offers insights for wildlife management and disease prevention, highlighting priority areas for monitoring and intervention in Northern Greece.